FICO UK Credit Card Market Report: November 2022

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FICO’s latest report of UK card trends — for November 2022 — suggests that consumers managed their credit card debt to keep lines of credit open for the festive season as spend increased month on month. However, a continuing trend in those missing two or three payments will be a concern for lenders.

Highlights

  • Average total sales in November reversed the downward trend seen over the previous few months, to be 1.9 percent higher than October 2022 at £755
  • The percentage of payments to balance dropped by 2.8 percent in November, suggesting continued pressure on disposable income
  • Accounts missing one payment dropped by 4.2 percent
  • Year-on-year there were 14.8 percent more accounts with two missed payments and 10.3 percent more accounts with three missed payments
  • The reliance on credit cards for cash withdrawals dropped, month-on-month, by 10.4 percent

FICO comment

Analysis of the largest consortium of UK cards data shows that November was a mixed story when it came to credit card spend and debt management. On one hand, typical festive spending was evident; but there were also signs that those already struggling to manage financial commitments were further stressed.

The percentage of cardholders missing one payment decreased for the second month in a row, although it is 9 percent higher than 2021. But there has also been an increasing trend since May 2022 for customers missing two payments and since June 2022 for those missing three payments.

Year on year the trend will also be a concern to lenders, with a 14.8 percent increase for those missing two payments since November 2021. This is likely to be driven by a combination of the exhaustion of savings built up during the pandemic, increasing interest rates and continued high levels of inflation. Going back to November 2019 — pre-pandemic — the percentage of customers missing one, two and three payments was higher than it is now. However, it is important to note that the average balance of two and three missed payments was lower three years ago.

Another sign of financial pressure is the percentage of payments to balance. This dropped again in November by 2.8 percent to 39.3 percent, and is down 1.5 percent year on year. This measure is expected to keep dropping as consumers’ savings reduce and cost-of-living pressures are expected to continue well into 2023.

The Data Charts

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Lenders can use segmentation analysis on their portfolios to ensure that their web and mobile applications encourage consumers in distress to make contact at the first indications of difficulty, and to consider establishing special payment plans for those struggling to stay on top.