ONS GPR monthly estimate – comment

“The UK has narrowly avoided falling into a recession, but indicators leave little room for optimism. A closer look reveals that the economy shrank in September (by 0.1% month-on-month) and the 1% growth seen in Q3 2019 is the weakest rate of expansion since Q1 2010.

“However, overall growth remains weak amidst increasing global headwinds and the high levels of Brexit uncertainty. Looking into 2020, we predict real GDP growth to recover modestly, with the snap General Election potentially bringing a solution to the stalled Brexit process. On the downside, with the transition period of leaving the EU set to end in late 2020, the risk of a no-deal Brexit in early 2021 remains elevated with adverse effects on the economy.”

“Dun & Bradstreet’s latest Q3 Industry Report includes analysis on a sample of B2B payment data which shows on-time payment performance has improved from 31.5% in September 2018 to 44.7% in 2019.”

Markus Kuger, Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet