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|Businesses must tread with caution: The full effects of Brexit will not be felt for many quarters|
|Thursday, 23 February 2017|
“Dun & Bradstreet’s Q4 UK Industry report confirms the continuing trend of turmoil and uncertainty that businesses in the UK face post-Brexit. The UK’s Q3 economic output figures signified the slow downwards shift that the economy is undergoing. Thanks to the depreciation of the pound and coinciding rise of inflation, overall we expect inflation to reach 2.6% and the UK economy to only grow by 1.0% in 2017. As it is still unclear what the ramifications of invoking Article 50 will entail, businesses of all sizes must continue to operate on the side of caution, and use data to help them find the appropriate areas of growth.
“Brexit negotiations are without doubt going to take time: it won’t be a quick and simple transition, and it is likely that we will need an interim agreement in the first quarter of 2019. Our expectation is that the UK economy and global markets will not completely recover until the UK fully negotiates its exit from the EU. Our statistical information also indicates that on average 3% of UK businesses currently fall under a high risk of failure. With a heightened chance of failure, it’s paramount for businesses to ensure the correct risk management solutions are in place. Businesses should adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach as the UK’s economy continues to change quarter by quarter, and we will not see the full impact of the Brexit vote for many quarters to come.”
Bodhi Ganguli, Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet
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