“Today’s GDP figures for Q2 2020 confirm the biggest drop on record and the significant impact of the pandemic on UK businesses, in line with Dun & Bradstreet’s macroeconomic baseline scenario. We are forecasting a contraction of 9.8% in real GDP for 2020 and the Dun & Bradstreet country risk rating for the UK remains the lowest on record with a deteriorating outlook due to increased credit risk.
“Dun & Bradstreet’s latest proprietary data for Q2 shows that payment performance has deteriorated across all 14 sectors tracked during the pandemic, despite several quarters of continuous improvement prior to lockdown. Our data indicates that the number of payments made on time has fallen from an average of 47.2% in March to 42.6% in June, 2020. We expect this to deteriorate further in Q3 as many sectors continue to face cash flow challenges in the wake of lockdown.
“Corporate liquidations are down for Q2 but this figure is likely to rise as filing requirements revert to normal, government support schemes come to an end and businesses start to repay emergency loans obtained during lockdown. During the coming quarters, it will be more important than ever for businesses to assess potential credit risk across their existing and future business relationships. Our COVID-19 impact index is tracking the potential impact on businesses across the UK by region, industry and size to help companies assess their level of potential risk exposure across supply chains and customer base.”
Markus Kuger, Chief Economist at commercial data and analytics firm, Dun & Bradstreet